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African Thoughts: December 21, 2015


The Lagos bourse continues to fall into year-end as the ASI slipped by a further 2.69% last week. The ASI is now down 23.43% YTD. Both the banks (-2.25%) and the consumers (-69bps) lost ground for the week. The Banks were dragged lower by the likes of Access Bank (N4.57, -6.73%), Sterling Bank (N1.85, -6.57%) and Zenith Bank (N13.97, -5.61%). The Consumers lost 69bps thanks to Cadbury (N18.05, -9.75%), Guinness (N123.00, -1.60%), NB (N115.99, -2.53%) and Nestle (N800.00, -1.27%). However, notable gains were seen on PZ (N28.98, +7.33%), Unilever (N45.50, +8.38%) and Oando (N5.73, +6.11%).


The NASI gained 60bps last week (YTD -10.6%) while the NSE 20 fell by 10bps and now down 22% YTD. Turnover also increased sharply although this was heavily skewed by 2 large local crosses in Equity Bank and Housing Finance. The large caps had a rather mixed week. The banks were generally soft with Equity Bank falling by 4.3% to KES39.00 while KNCB had a more modest drop of 60bps to KES40.00. Safcom gained a solid 2.8% to KES16.70 while EABL fell by 40bps to KES275.00.


The Industrials fell by 3.77% last week thereby extending this year loss to a mammoth 30.46%. As difficult as it is to believe, interest in the market was even lower than its been for a while as volumes remain thin. Amongst the losers we saw drops in the likes of National Foods (-6.39%, $2.60 - albeit on scrappy trading), Innscor (-3.70%, 26c), Dairibord (-3.49%, 7.74c) and Delta (-96bps, 71.31c). Econet closed marginally higher at 18.5c.


The Mauritian bourse remains pretty dull. The Semdex fell by 30bps (-13% YTD) while the Sem-10 fell by 90bps (-10.6% YTD). MCB also fell for the week as it lost 1.3% to Rs207.25.

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